Baccarat Odds
The price of a baccarat bet is set by its win rate and its payout. Combine the two and you have the house edge, the share of each stake the bet gives up over time. This page sets out both for every common bet, for shoes of one, six and eight decks, and shows what each change to the rules is worth.
Nothing here is simulated; every probability is worked out exactly from the composition of the shoe. Where a figure depends on how a table counts ties, the page says which count it uses. What these prices mean for the way you bet is on the baccarat strategy page.
Every Bet in an Eight-Deck Shoe
The house edge column counts every round dealt, including the ties that hand Banker and Player bets back. The last column counts only the rounds that settled the bet, which is why it is a little higher for those two. Tie and pair bets are settled every round, so the two counts are the same for them. Read one column at a time: comparing a figure from one with a figure from the other is comparing unlike things.
Banker, Player or Tie: How Often Each Happens
Banker is ahead at every deck count, and the reason is the drawing rule: Banker's hand is decided after Player's third card is seen. The how-to-play guide sets the rule out in full.
House Edge by Number of Decks
The main bets hardly move: fewer decks make Banker a shade cheaper and Player a shade dearer, and neither move is big enough to change which bet is cheapest. The bets that move are the ones built on repeated cards. A pair needs two cards of the same rank, and a single deck holds only four of each, so the pair bet is far worse there. Deck count is worth checking for side bets and almost irrelevant for Banker and Player.
The Commission, in Money
Uncorrected, Banker's extra wins would hand the bettor an advantage: at even money its house edge would be -1.24%, which is Player's figure with the sign flipped, because the two bets win and lose on exactly opposite rounds.
The 5% commission on winning Banker bets turns that around. It collects 2.293 units for every 100 staked on Banker, which is more than the bet's natural advantage, and the difference is the house edge of 1.06%. The commission that would leave Banker exactly break-even is 2.69%. At 5%, the house keeps the part above that.
Because a tie returns the stake with no commission charged, the same cost spread over settled rounds only comes to 1.17%, the second Banker figure in the first table.
What Each Rule Change Costs
Eight decks unless the change is the deck count. The tie payout is the biggest lever on the table, and the only one that makes a bet dramatically cheaper. The two commission-free rules are set out on the no-commission guide.
The Pair Bet
The pair bet wins when the first two cards of the hand you choose, Player or Banker, are the same rank, such as two 7s or two queens. It pays 11 to 1 and is settled on those two cards alone, whatever happens in the round. With eight decks it wins 7.47% of the time, about once in 13.39 rounds, and costs 10.36% of each stake, many times the price of the Banker bet.
Other side bets vary from one game to the next, both in what they pay for and in what they pay. Their prices follow the pay table each game prints, which only that game's rules screen can tell you.
Multiplier Games
Tables that attach random multipliers to some wins have no price that can be derived from the shoe, because their strike rates are kept private. The live dealer guide explains what to compare instead.
Baccarat Odds FAQs
With eight decks, Banker wins 45.86% of rounds, Player 44.62%, and the rest, 9.52%, are ties. Leave the ties out and Banker wins 50.68% of the rounds that have a winner.
Because Player wins fewer rounds than Banker. Banker's drawing rule responds to Player's third card, and that edge in information is worth more than the 5% commission Banker pays. The result is 1.24% on Player against 1.06% on Banker.
A great deal. With eight decks the Tie costs 14.36% at 8 to 1 and 4.84% at 9 to 1. It is still the dearest of the three main bets either way.
By very little. Banker costs 1.06% with six decks and 1.06% with eight, and Player 1.24% against 1.24%. The deck count matters much more for the pair bet than for either main bet.
As a price, no: at 11 to 1 it gives up 10.36% of each stake with eight decks, and more when fewer decks are used. What it offers is a bigger single win, not value.
Only by a sliver as the shoe empties. The largest effect any one card has on Player is 0.011952 of a percentage point with eight decks, and the strategy guide covers counting in full.